Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
